CFL: March 19th + 20th

CFL: (-0.75) SLAVEN BELUPO – Istra

(1,68@Pinnacle, 1.66@12Bet)

Slaven's home record vs struggling teams is impressive, and although they only manage to share points vs Istra this September, I think they'll comfortably win this one – just like their won 2:0 at Istra in December. Istra won only 3 points in the last 10 rounds (3 draws in the last 3 away matches, and that series can't last forever). If we take a closer look, 2 of those were at fellow strugglers Zagreb and Osijek, while at RNK Split they were lucky enough to equalise in the injury time.

CFL: Hajduk – (-0.5) DINAMO

(1,77@Pinnacle, SBO, 1.74@12Bet)

These 2 clubs played on Wednesday in Split. Hajduk was nowhere to be seen, Dinamo scored 2 goals in the opening 30 minutes and they weren't interested in demolishing Hajduk, so it ended 0:2. And I can't see things changing much in only 4 days, although Marko Pjaca got injured (he broke key-bone, and won't play till the end of the season), and athough Hajduk's defender Velazquez migh be fit for this one. Hajduk is missing the key players they sold this season, while the players they brought are not even close to their level – sports director Goran Vucevic offered to leave to the Board, and we'll know few hours before the match what will happen to him. I have to admit that – if Pjaca is fit – would go for the -1 AH at Pinnacle (2,52), but I can see Dinamo winning 1:0 od 2:1. Btw, Hajduk failed to score in 300 minutes – except for the goal from the non-existing penalty vs depleted Zagreb.

Picks coming at usual time

We'll have one pick for today, one for tomorrow, while additional one for Sunday might arrive tomorrow at usual time, I just have to see the latest team news for that one. So, tune in at 10.30 AM GMT.

CFL: March 18th, Friday

CFL: (-0.75) OSIJEK – Zagreb

(1,80@Pinnacle, 1,78@12Bet, 1,76@SBO)

It seems that Osijek already feels some benefits of the fact they have new owner from Hungary. In the last 3 rounds, they shared points (2:2) at Hajduk, lost in the injury time at Rijeka (2:1) and beat Inter Zapresic in the last round (1:0). Sorsa and Saric are back after suspension, which means only Lukic (suspended) and goalkeeper Mikulic are not availabe, and that's definitely rare situation for coach Zoran Zekic. On top of that, they play at home vs Zagreb, a club that won only 10 points in 27 matches, and 9th place which would bring them to play-off match vs 2nd placed team from 2nd league is huge 12 points away, and only 9 rounds till the end of the season. Osijek won 6 of the last 7 matches they played this season (Zagreb scored only 1 goal in those 7 matches, Osijek kept the clean sheet in the last 6 H2H matches). On top of that, Mudrazija and Sulc are suspended for Zagreb, their best player, defender Kolinger is still on the bench (because of the interview in which he said what he thinks 3 or 4 months ago), while Cubel is injured. Although I wouldn't be surprised with with 1:0 or 2:1 here, in that case we'll still make some profit, but I wouldn't be surprised with 2:0 or 3:0 or 3:1 neither.

Next picks

Hello. Next possible pick will be published tomorrow at 10.30 AM GMT. But, all the possible picks for both Saturday and Sunday will be publisher on Saturday at usual time, as my father-duties don't allow me to be near the computer on Sunday morning.

Last weekend was disasterous - Slaven Belupo conceeded a goal from a doubtful penalty, while Inter didn't manage to recover after early Osijek's goal - on top of that, their best goalscorer Nestorovski was sent off 30 minutes before the final whistle.

CFL: Saturday, March 12th

CFL: (0) SLAVEN BELUPO – RNK Split

(1,80@Pinnacle, 1,75@12Bet, 1,78@SBO)

Slaven Belupo are doing just fine, specially at home – 5 wins, 4 draws and only 3 defeats (vs Dinamo, Hajduk and Lokomotiva, so Top 4 teams). After the winter break, they won both matches they played at home – 1:0 vs Osijek and 3:0 vs Zagreb. They'll miss their best player this spring Filip Ozobic, but Mateas Delic and Muzafer Ejupi are back for this one, and since coach Kopic has to choose between Stefan Savic and Sandi Krizman (one of them will replace Ozobic), the only selection problem is not that big.

RNK Split has only one win this spring – 1:0 at home vs poor Zagreb. They only have 2 away wins this season – at the very same Zagreb and at struggling Osijek. It's also a fact they have 6 draws in the last 10 – or 10 of 26 this season, but in case of another draw, we get our money back. Split's probably best player – goalkeeper Zagorac is suspended for this one, so 23rd year old Tomislav Duka will have his debut in the first league. On top of that, it's a fact that Split doesn't look good – they were dominant only vs Zagreb, and even poor Istra was able to be better then them – on their own pitch.

CFL: Friday, March 11th

CFL: Osijek – (+0.25) INTER ZAPRESIC

(1,83@Pinnacle, 1.80 @SBO, 1.79@ 12Bet)

I really don't see why is Osijek favourite in this one. Osijek has only won 2 points after the winter break – in a goalless draw vs fellow strugglers Istra at home, and away at Hajduk Split, where they score equaliser in 95th minute. As usual, the have selection problems – Sorsa and Saric are suspended, Mikulic and Pongracic are injured, while Arsenic has not yet fully recovered after injury. Vojnovic and Knezevic will have to play in this one, although they're not ready for 90 minutes of football after injurie. Osijek has only 1 win in the last 10 matches – away at Zagreb, who strongly holds the last position since the beginning of the season. They conceeded 8 goals in the last 4 matches, and I can definitely see them conceeding a goal or two today.

Inter Zapresic are still undefeated after the winter break. In fact, 3 wins and 2 draws make them 2nd best team this spring, after 10-years-in-a-row champions Dinamo. Goalless draw vs Hajduk in the last round was the only match this „spring“ they failed to score, and since they have the best goalscorer of the league (Nestorovski), I can't see them failing to score once again. Condition of the pitch won't be perfect, but as goalkeeper Covic put it – „you can see that we're doing pretty well on arable lands“. When these two teams played this summer, Osijek won 3:1, but first two goals were score from at least doubtful penalties (2nd one in 87th minute). 

Recap - 5th-8th March

What could I say after the first round on blog? There's no doubt that I'd say that +0.42 is ok, if the start of the season wasn't that catastrophic as it was. We were a bit lucky with RNK Split - Istra bet. The match started great - RNK Split scored from a doubtful penalty, but they weren't looking for the second goal. Istra was much better team, and scored equaliser in the injury time, and Split's best player was their goalkeeper. If there's a team who deserved to win, that was Istra. But, it ended 1:1 and we lost a 0.5 point there.

In yesterday's match, Inter - Hajduk played a goalless draw in a match that was an anti-commercial for football. Hajduk was a bit better team (only 1 shot on target, though) in the first half, while Inter was much better in the 2nd, untill Mazalovic got red card. The biggest Hajduk's "chance" was a penatly, but the referee remain silent.

The next round is scheduled for the weekend, from Friday till Sunday, so you can expect the first possible pick on Friday. I'm also interested in one of the two matches on Saturday, and one of two on Sunday, which doesn't mean we'll have 3 picks this weekend as well. So, if you want to be sure not to miss any picks - just tune in every day at 10.30 AM GMT, and see what do I have to say.

CFL: Tuesday, March 8th

CFL: (0) INTER ZAPRESIC – Hajduk Split

(2,04 @SBO, 2,03@Pinnacle)

This match was postponed on Saturday because the pitch was covered by snow. The weather is better now, but pitch will be muddy, I'm positive about that.

Inter Zapresic is in great form after the winter break. After a draw vs RNK Split (1:1), they have 3 consecutive 2:1 wins – at Istra, vs Hajduk and at Lokomotiva. They have top scorer of the league – Ilija Nestorovski, and they have no injury problems.

On the other hand, Hajduk conceeded an equaliser vs Osijek in 95th minute in the last round. They have won only 4 points in 4 matches, Dinamo and Rijeka are definitely too far ahead now, so they'll fully concentrate on keeping the 3rd place and semifinal of the Cup – they will play vs Dinamo in 2 weeks. Hajduk has major selection problems – two main players in the midfield (Jefferson and Susic) are suspended, Arteaga and Josip Basic are injured, while Velez, Vlasic and Velazquez are doubtful, Tudor is also back after injury, and he'll probably start on the bench. They are all fit after injuries, but coach Buric said that they will play only in the condition of the pitch will be ok. And I'm pretty sure it won't. We also have to know that Hajduk lost 3 important players this winter, the most important seems to be central defender Milovic, as Hajduk's defense without him is not that solid as it used to be and the most creative midfielders Caktas and Balic.

I can't believe Hajduk is still light favourite in this one, and I just have to take this bet, as the draw should be the worst case scenario here.

CFL: Monday, March 7th - Pick

CFL: RNK Split – Istra OVER 2,25 GOALS

(2,00 @SBO, 1,97@Pinnacle)

Players of RNK Split were on a strike on Saturday as some of them didn't get their salaries. But, coach Goran Sablic is satisfied – as they prooved they „breathe as one“. They were training normally on Sunday, and they have important match tonight, if they want to reach 4th place at the end of the season, which would lead them to Europa League Qualifiers – if they win, they'll reach Lokomotiva, who already has 39 points. Split's results at the first glance this spring are not good. But, we have to know that in the last two matches they lost at Dinamo Zagreb (only 1:0, in which they played defensive minder), and 2:1 at home vs Rijeka – in that match they failed to score from the 11m spot. Round before that, they beat NK Zagreb 1:0, in a match that they failed to score from incredible chances, such as 4 on 1 counter attacks. In the opening match after the break, they shared point at in-form Inter Zapresic (1:1). In this match, they'll play offensively, no doubt about that.

Istra doesn't play good at all – they're without a win for 12 rounds in a row. After the winter break, they won 2 points, both away (0:0 at fellow strugglers Osijek, and 1:1 at the worst team of the league NK Zagreb). In the remaining two matches they lost at home 2:1 vs Inter Zapresic (they were 2:0 benihd at HT) and 1:0 vs Dinamo (who scored in 6th minute and wasn't motivated at all). Istra has as much as 3 suspended players (Tomic, Hadzic and Heister), while Ojdanic is sick – and all of them would be in starting 11, Heister and Ojdanic are standard defensive players. Istra managed to keep only one clean sheet in the last 10 matches, away at Osijek (0:0). When these two clubs played in August in Split, home team won 3:0. Weather in Split will be fine, and I really think this is the match in which Split will finally score 2 or 3 goals in one match.

I think RNK Split is closer to the win here, but their defense – although they have a very good keeper – isn't to secure, and Istra is usually able to score at least a goal at Split's stadium. If we take a look at their 8 H2H matches, we can see that at least 2 goals were scored in each of them.

CFB: Monday, March 7th - We'll have a pick for today

Like I said – I'm not sorry at all, even if both bets I was considering, would be won. But, you have to know that I watched both matches live – and after Dinamo scored scored the opening goal in 2nd minute, I was more than glad that I didn't take any kind of bet on Slaven.

Over 2,5 goals on Rijeka – Osijek match bet would be won as well, but once again – I saved myself at least additional half a kilo of nerves. It was rainning all the time, it was 0-0 at the HT, it was 1-0 till 89th minute, when the referee showed the white spot (for no reason, if you ask me). And the Rijeka scored a winning goal in 93rd minute.

RNK Split – Istra match is scheduled for today, and we'll get involved in that match, so tune in at 10.30 AM GMT.

CFL: Sunday, March 6th - Day off

Just like I expected, Lokomotiva beat Zagreb, but failed to keep the clean sheet. If you just take a look at the final result (1:3), it might seem that the bet was easily won. And it was only 0:1 15 minutes till the end. But, that's why football match lasts for 90 minutes. Some of you maybe asked where is the info about recored odds. It's in the commentaries, and it'll be there in the future.

Two matches scheduled for Sunday. I was thinking about +2 AH on Slaven Belupo at Dinamo, but the main AH is set on 1,75 and I'm not that brave. Dinamo has won last 10 matches, that can't last forever, but I think they'll win tomorrow - and I wouldn't be surprised if they win 1:0 once again. But, I'm more than glad to skip this one.

Rijeka will host Osijek, I planned to take OVER 2,5 GOALS bet. But the weather forecast is pretty rainy, with possible storms during the match, Osijek will surely play defensive minded, and that bet would be too dependent on weather conditions and the time of the first goal scored, so I'm skipping that one too.

Why I'm writing this? Because I won't be sorry if I get them both right and not turned them into official picks. I'm planning to pick only the best bets in the following 2 and a half months, and these two don't meet the criteria.

But, those of you who are following my picks maybe won't get a working days off - as RNK Split will host Istra on Monday, while postponed match Inter Zapresic - Hajduk Split is rescheduled for Tuesday, and we might get involved in at least one of those two. You can expect pick and preview on 10.30 AM, and if decide not to get involved, I'll announce that a bit ealrier (but still on the match-day).

CFL: Saturday, March 5th

CFL: NK Zagreb – Lokomotiva OVER 2,5 GOALS

(1,93@SBO, 1,92@Pinnacle, 1,87@12Bet, Dafabet)

This is the match between two teams that play their home matches on the same turf, Zagreb's stadium in Kranjceviceva street. But, since both teams don't have too many fans (or at least noisy fans), this „city derby“ won't atract too many spectators. Zagreb strongly holds the last position, they won only 10 points (only one win, 7 draws and as many as 17 defeats) in 25 matches, conceeded 45 goals and scored only 18. After the winter break, they have 1 draw (1:1 vs Istra) and 3 defeats (2:1 vs Dinamo Zagreb, 3:0 at Slaven Belupo – who also missed a penalty and 1:0 at RNK Split – in which Split had at least 3 or 4 must score chances). They also have some selection problems (Anto Gudelj is suspended), while the boss and coach Drazen Medic is not satisfied with performances of the most of the players, so he constantly rotates the team. After they failed to beat Istra, and narrow down that -11 points, players became depleted. Most of them are worrying about their own future, as they already see their current club in the 2nd league.

Lokomotiva, as usual, plays very relaxed. They have too many quality youngsters (Cekici arrived from Dinamo, Pamic and Husejinovic arrived at the beginning of the season from Dinamo), and even defensive players, specially left and right backs, are quite offensive minded. It's no surprise that they're no. 1 on O/U table – 19 of 25 matches they played this season ended by at least 3 goals scored. After the winter break, they played 4 matches – they lost 2:0 at Rijeka, won vs Hajduk Split 2:1 and at Osijek 3:1, and finally lost vs Inter Zapresic 2:1 at home. Lokomotiva will miss two standard defensive players – central defender Herdi Prenga and defensive midfielder Luka Capan (both suspended), which will surely affect their defensive performance. If we take a look at their last 5 head-to-head matches, we can see that only once this bet would be lost – in their last match, which Lokomotiva won 2:0. Before that, the results were 1:2, 2:1, 0:6 and 3:0.

I think Lokomotiva is much closer to the win here, but I wouldn't be surprised if Zagreb scores one or even two goals.

Inter Zapresic - Hajduk postoponed

Since Inter's pitch is traditionally in bad condition, and it's currently covered by snow (5 centimetres), the match is postoponed. It's re-scheduled for Tuesday 16 PM GMT, but who knows. However, we might get involved in remaining match, NK Zagreb - Lokomotiva, so tune in tomorrow morning.

Here we go!

Hello everybody.

This blog is about betting on Croatian Football League, matches of Croatian clubs in UEFA's competitions and matches of Croatian National Teams – A-Team, U-21 etc.
I've been writing picks for 3 and a half years now, they've been available only through e-mails, only to the clients of my friend Skeeve (www.skeevepicks.com), but not we decided to switch back to blog. That's where te picks will be available from now on, till further notice. First official pick will be available on Saturday morning, at 10 AM GMT, which will be usual time for publishing picks. I'll regularly notice a day or two before will there be any official picks for the following days.
There are 2 matches scheduled for today and 1 for tomorrow, but there's not enough value in the odds I see. But, if the odds for matches available in local Croatian bookmakers don't change significantly, we'll definitely have a bet or two on Saturday.

For starters, this is what Skeeve wrote to his clients in one of his recent e-mails:
"After I've tried out a few tipsters in the second half of the 2012/13 football season, I'd finally managed to strike a deal with a long-time friend and Croatian football expert Tony Grappa before the beginning of the 2013/14 season and Tony indeed had an amazing first season (all 2013/14 picks were available to all Skeeve Picks clients and SBC members free of charge), making a +18.36 point profit at one-point flat stakes (19.5% ROI, 73.4% ROC). He started the 2014/15 season in a similarly amazing manner, making almost a +10 point profit in July and August alone before giving most of it back to the bookmakers in the next few months. I'd decided to get more involved, have the last say or, should I say, not to forward all of Tony's picks (through a simple institution of veto) and we've managed to finish the season with a +7.8 point profit (10.2% ROI, 39% ROC). Unfortunately, the third season didn't start good and we were at -5.27 by mid-August, which would've been -7 if I hadn't decided to take the responsibility for a Hajduk @2.72 bet on August 10 while Tony was still the main CFB tipster. After that, I've decided to take even more responsibility and become a main tipster, at least a temporary one, myself. Tony had continued to send me his picks and, at one time, his personal losing run (including all the picks I've decided not to forward to Skeeve Picks clients) reached a twenty-point mark, which is our recommended betting bank for the CFB. Unfortunately, it turned out I'm far from being as good a tipster with the CFB as I am with the non-league picks, which isn't that big of a surprise if you think about it - after all, this is my 10th anniversary non-league season and there's quite a few differences between England's fifth and Croatian's first tier - and I'm now currently at a -3.68 point loss with my own CFB picks. That's far from being a disaster, but the CFB are currently at a -10.67 point loss for the season so far (and at a +15.49 point profit since July 2013, which equates to a rather modest 6.3% ROI and a 59.1% ROC) and I think it's time to listen to what you guys have to say on the subject. To be completely honest and transparent, Tony's also made a loss since I took over as the main CFB tipster, but his loss is less than half a point, while I've lost more than three and a half points and I'm not ashamed to admit I'm not nearly as good at advising CFB picks as I hoped I'd be."